May 2, 2019
FRIDAY AM UPDATE: Among the weekend’s new wide releases, Sony’s release of the Screen Gems thriller The Intruder led the way in terms of Thursday evening previews, taking in $865,000 from showings beginning at 5PM in 2,073 locations. When it comes to the comps listed in our preview below none of them either held or reported preview grosses so a comparison can’t be made to those titles.
Lionsgate’s release of Long Shot held previews last night in ~2,500 locations and brought in $660,000. Comps in this range include the likes of The Intern and Snatched, which brought in $650k each from previews while opening with $17.7 million and $19.5 million respectively, though Snatched opened over Mother’s Day weekend.
Lastly, STXfilms and Alibaba Pictures UglyDolls took in $300,000 from Thursday previews while playing at approximately 2,250 locations. This is behind previews for Smurfs: The Lost Village ($375k) and just ahead of My Little Pony ($290k), which opened with $13.2 million and $8.9 million respectively.
We’ll take a closer look at things tomorrow morning once Friday estimates come in. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.
WEEKEND PREVIEW: Records continue to fall as Disney’s Avengers: Endgame makes ready for its sophomore frame. After having already topped $452 million domestically (#17 all-time) and $1.664 billion worldwide (#6 all-time), the film enters its second weekend looking to top Star Wars: The Force Awakens‘s $149.2 million second weekend and add that record to its list of achievements. Beyond that, the film will top $600 million domestically this weekend and has a shot at outperforming 2012’s The Avengers, which brought in $623.4 million after 154 days in release Endgame is looking to do push past that number in just ten.
As already mentioned, Star Wars: The Force Awakens currently holds the record for the largest second weekend of all-time with $149.2 million. While Avengers: Endgame destroyed Force Awakens‘s opening weekend by more than $100 million, Force Awakens dipped just -40% in its sophomore frame. Don’t look for Endgame to follow suit, but given the sheer size of Endgame‘s debut, the second weekend record is certainly in jeopardy. Second on the list of largest second weekends is Avengers: Infinity War with $114.7 million, which dropped -55.5% in its second weekend and is clearly a much better comp for Endgame.
Online ticket retailer Fandango.com reports Endgame is currently seeing 85% more repeat customers on Fandango than Infinity War did at the same point in the sales cycle. While there are several factors to consider, including Endgame‘s $60 million in preview grosses versus Infinity War‘s $39 million, which should be factored in when it comes to forecasting a second weekend dip, Endgame has certainly become a cultural moment and a drop similar to Infinity War‘s isn’t at all unreasonable. In fact, we’re going to forecast a dip right around -57% and a $154 million second weekend, which should push the film past The Avengers on the domestic all-time list, making it the seventh largest domestic release all-time.
Internationally, Endgame has already brought in $1.21 billion overseas as of May 1 after having released in 100% of the international marketplace. The film is doing gangbusters in China where it has already generated $459.4 million and early estimates have it doing another $50 million on Thursday as it continues to add to its already record haul as the largest foreign release in the market of all-time. The film currently stands as the sixth largest worldwide release of all-time and will soon push over $2 billion globally, moving to #2 behind Avatar ($2.788 billion).
Following Endgame, there are three new wide releases this weekend and we’ll begin with Lionsgate’s release of Summit’s Long Shot, a romantic comedy starring Charlize Theron and Seth Rogen that will open in 3,230 locations. The film debuted at the SXSW Film Festival where it won the Audience Award and has received solid reviews from critics 71 on Metacritic and 88% on RottenTomatoes. That said, Endgame is throwing a kink in pretty much all expectations with the studio anticipating a debut performance anywhere from $9-14 million. Any other weekend we would probably forecast on the higher end of that range and perhaps even as much as $19 million, but, as things are, a debut closer to $12 million seems about right with the potential for a slightly higher performance and a chance at decent legs should opening weekend audiences like what they see and spread the word.
Next we come to STX’s first foray into CG-animated feature films with UglyDolls, which the studio will debut in 3,652 locations. The film is based on the brand of plush toys first introduced in 2001 and STX has gone big with the voice actors cast in the film which includes Kelly Clarkson, Nick Jonas, Janelle Monae, Pitbull and more, but we’re having a hard time finding reason to expect a debut in the teens, which is what tracking is currently pointing toward.
A look at IMDb page view data shows UglyDolls barely outpacing Missing Link ($5.94m opening) over the two weeks leading up to release and is pacing behind Sherlock Gnomes ($10.6m opening), Teen Titans Go! ($10.4m opening) and Smurfs: The Lost Village ($13.2m opening). In fact, the best comparison from that standpoint is 2017’s My Little Pony: The Movie, which opened with $8.89 million from 2,528 locations. UglyDolls is getting a much wider release than My Little Pony did this weekend, which does have us looking at a debut around $10-11 million, but it’s tough to expect much more, especially when the mostly negative reviews 38 on Metacritic and 39% on RottenTomatoes are unlikely to encourage those that were on the fence to check it out.
The last new wide release of the weekend is Sony and Screen Gems’s The Intruder, a new thriller starring Meagan Good, Michael Ealy and Dennis Quaid. A look at IMDb page view data shows the film pacing similarly to the 2016 Screen Gems release When the Bought Breaks ($14.2m opening) while pacing behind the likes of The Perfect Guy and No Good Deed which opened with $25.8 million and $24.2 million respectively. That being said, the studio is anticipating a debut around $9 million, which seems about right, though we are seeing potential for an upside and anticipating an opening closer to $10 million.
Rounding out the top five, Disney and Marvel’s Captain Marvel should add another $5.5 million or so this weekend as it spends its seventh weekend in the top five since release. Should that forecast hold, look for Captain Marvel to push over or near $422 million by the end of the weekend as it will soon top The Lion King on the all-time domestic box office list, and perhaps do so even this weekend if it can hold on a little better.
Elsewhere, Briarcliff will open El Chicano in 605 locations while limited releases this weekend including Non-Fiction from IFC in two theaters while Well Go will release Savage and Shadow and Magnolia will launch the documentary Ask Dr. Ruth.
This weekend’s forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.
- Avengers: Endgame (4,662 theaters) – $153.6 M
- Long Shot (3,230 theaters) – $12.0 M
- Uglydolls (3,652 theaters) – $10.5 M
- The Intruder (2,222 theaters) – $10.0 M
- Captain Marvel (2,243 theaters) – $5.5 M
- Breakthrough (2,884 theaters) – $4.4 M
- The Curse of La Llorona (2,540 theaters) – $3.2 M
- Shazam! (2,521 theaters) – $2.4 M
- Dumbo (1,668 theaters) – $1.8 M
- Little (1,353 theaters) – $1.6 M