March 21, 2019
SATURDAY AM UPDATE: Universal’s release of Jordan Peele‘s Us is dominating in its opening weekend, delivering an estimated $29.06 million on Friday with current studio estimates anticipating a $67 million three-day debut. Should expectations hold that will be more than double the strong opening weekend for Peele’s Get Out in 2017. The film received a “B” CinemaScore from opening day audiences.
You can check out all of the Friday estimates right here and we’ll be back tomorrow morning with a complete look at the weekend.
FRIDAY AM UPDATE:Jordan Peele‘s Us delivered an absolutely massive $7.4 million from Thursday night previews, which began last night in 3,510 theaters at 7PM. The performance is more than four times as large as the $1.8 million in previews Peele’s Get Out brought in two years ago and is just behind the $7.7 million in previews Halloween brought in last October before going on to open with over $76 million. It’s still too early to say if that kind of a performance is in sight, but to say Us is likely to top $60 million seem almost a foregone conclusion at this point.
We’ll take a closer look at things tomorrow morning once Friday estimates come in. For now you can check out our weekend preview below.
WEEKEND PREVIEW: March rolls on with yet another highly anticipated film arriving in theaters this weekend. Jordan Peele‘s Us serves as the writer/director’s follow-up to 2017’s smash hit Get Out and it is looking to dethrone Captain Marvel and secure the weekend’s top spot at the box office.
Arriving in over 3,700 theaters this weekend, Us enters the weekend hot off a strong debut at the SXSW Film Festival, which has led to a Metacritic score that currently stands at 80. The film, which stars Lupita Nyong’o and Winston Duke, is Peele’s follow up to 2017’s Get Out, which debuted with over $33 million and went on to gross over $176 million at the domestic box office. Get Out also received an “A-” CinemaScore from opening day audiences and was such a hit with crowds it dipped just -15% in its second weekend. Building off that film’s success, Us will benefit from not only a strong critical response, but will debut in nearly one thousand more theaters than Get Out.
Industry tracking has Us debuting anywhere from $45-50 million, which is where Mojo’s expectations were earlier in the week, but have since shifted a little higher. A look at IMDb page view performance leading up to release shows Us pacing well ahead of Get Out over the two weeks leading up to release and just a bit behind last April’s release of A Quiet Place ($50m opening). Online ticket retailer Fandango.com reports similar findings, noting the film is currently outpacing both Get Out and A Quiet Place in ticket pre-sales and is seeing the best horror thriller pre-sales on Fandango since last year’s Halloween ($76.2m opening). All told, we’re anticipating a $50+ million debut, though don’t be surprised to see it push higher, perhaps even over $60 million.
Internationally, Us will open day-and-date with North America in 48 international markets including France, Brazil, Germany, Spain and the U.K & Ireland, with additional markets rolling out through the spring.
Disney and Marvel’s Captain Marvel will slide into second place as it enters its third week in release. This weekend we’re looking for the film to drop around -45% for a $37 million three-day and a domestic cume around $323 million by the end of day Sunday. In terms of superhero movies this would make it the 22nd highest grossing film on that list while becoming the tenth highest grossing release in the Marvel Cinematic Universe.
Paramount’s Wonder Park should land in third, dipping around -40% for a $9.5 million three-day and a domestic cume at or above $30 million by the end of the weekend.
Lionsgate’s release of CBS Films’s Five Feet Apart outperformed expectations in its debut last weekend and we’re expecting a satisfying hold this weekend. Right now we’re anticipating a drop around -42% and a three-day in the area of $7.65 million resulting in a domestic cume right around $25 million by Sunday evening.
Universal and DreamWorks Animation’s How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World should round out the top five, coming in right around $6 million for a domestic cume right around $145 million.
This weekend’s forecast is directly below. This post will be updated on Friday morning with Thursday night preview results followed by Friday estimates on Saturday morning, and a complete weekend recap on Sunday morning.
- Us (3,741 theaters) – $51.0 M
- Captain Marvel (4,278 theaters) – $37.2 M
- Wonder Park (3,838 theaters) – $9.5 M
- Five Feet Apart (2,866 theaters) – $7.6 M
- How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (3,346 theaters) – $6.0 M
- Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral (2,187 theaters) – $4.6 M
- No Manches Frida 2 (472 theaters) – $2.2 M
- Captive State (2,549 theaters) – $1.5 M
- The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part (1,389 theaters) – $1.2 M
- Alita: Battle Angel (1,439 theaters) – $1.1 M