by Brad Brevet

March 14, 2019

After last weekend saw the weekend box office top the same weekend in 2018 for the first time all year, this weekend looks as if it is going to be tight on that front. Disney and Marvel’s Captain Marvel is certain to top the weekend yet again as it pushes over $260 million domestically in just ten days while Paramount debuts the animated feature Wonder Park, Lionsgate and CBS release Five Feet Apart and Focus releases the near-future thriller Captive State. Also looking at a top ten finish is Lionsgate’s release of No Manches Frida 2, the sequel to the 2016 feature that debuted with over $3.6 million from just 362 locations.

At the top for a second weekend in a row will be Disney’s release of Marvel’s Captain Marvel, which debuted with a strong $153.4 million last weekend and has been pacing relatively similarly to The Hunger Games since release. That, plus the -56% average second weekend drop for films in the MCU, has us anticipating a second weekend drop around -55% for a three-day right around $69 million and a domestic cume nearing, if not topping, $265 million by the end of the weekend.

Captain Marvel has also grossed $362.6 million so far internationally for a worldwide gross topping $550 million as of today. This weekend it opens in its final overseas market, debuting in Japan this Friday. China remains the film’s top grossing international market with over $104 million as of Wednesday, March 13.

Paramount will land in the runner-up position with their animated release of Wonder Park, which is set to debut in 3,838 locations with the studio anticipating a debut anywhere from $10-14 million, which is mostly lining up with what we’re seeing, though some metrics are suggesting it may have an issue reaching double digits. A look at IMDb page view data shows the film pacing well behind Paramount’s Sherlock Gnomes over the two weeks leading up to release and that film debuted with $10.6 million last March. The film is also going to have to deal with How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, which is looking at a fourth weekend around $9-10 million as it pushes over $135 million. For now we’re looking for Wonder Park to finish around $13 million for the weekend, mostly due to that theater count, but wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up falling short.

Lionsgate’s release of CBS Films’s Five Feet Apart is looking as if it will deliver a third place finish, should it manage to deliver on the high end of tracking, which is currently around $8-10 million for the weekend while the studio is expecting a performance closer to $6-9 million. Our analysis lines up well with these expectations, though pushing toward the higher end looking for a performance anywhere from $9-11 million. A look at IMDb page view data over the two weeks leading up to release shows it pacing just a bit behind Fox’s March 2018 release of Love, Simon ($11.76m opening) and just ahead of WB’s Everything, Everything, which opened with $11.7 million back in May 2017.

Rounding out the top five is Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral, which should dip around -48% or so as it enters its third week in release. The performance would give it a $6.5 million three-day for a domestic cume pushing closer to $60 million by the end of the weekend.

Just outside the top five it could be a dogfight between Lionsgate’s release of Pantelion’s No Manches Frida 2 and Focus’s Captive State, despite the fact Captive State has a 2,000+ theater edge.

Captive State was assumed to be a limited release until last week when Focus revealed it would be going wide in over 2,500 locations, but it doesn’t appear there is going to be too much of a crowd for the near-future, alien thriller. Expectations are for a debut in the mid-single digits and just how “mid” this one gets is a bit of a question mark. IMDb page view data over the two weeks leading up to release shows the film pacing behind the January release of Replicas, which opened with $2.38 million, and just behind last August’s release of Kin, which debuted in 2,141 locations with just $3 million. It’s also lagging behind Focus’s own Self/less, which opened with $5.4 million back in July 2015. All told, we’re expecting a performance right around $4-5 million for the pic, for a per theater average right around $1,800.

Whether that will be enough to top No Manches Frida 2 is tough to answer. Back in September 2016 No Manches Frida debuted with $3.67 million from just 362 locations. The sequel is getting 110 more theaters than the first one opened in, which gives reason to expect a performance anywhere from $3-4 million.

In limited release, Rialto will debut Idris Elba‘s feature directorial debut Yardie in 77 theaters; Fox Searchlight will debut The Aftermath in five theaters; Focus will be releasing The Mustang in four locations; and Warner Bros. will be releasing Nancy Drew and the Hidden Staircase featuring It star Sophia Lillis in the title role.

This weekend’s forecast is directly below.

  • Captain Marvel (4,310 theaters) – $69.0 M
  • Wonder Park (3,838 theaters) – $13.0 M
  • Five Feet Apart (2,803 theaters) – $10.5 M
  • How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World (3,727 theaters) – $9.7 M
  • Tyler Perry’s A Madea Family Funeral (2,350 theaters) – $6.5 M
  • Captive State (2,547 theaters) – $4.5 M
  • No Manches Frida 2 (472 theaters) – $3.4 M
  • The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part (2,046 theaters) – $2.1 M
  • Alita: Battle Angel (1,696 theaters) – $1.8 M
  • Green Book (1,303 theaters) – $1.5 M

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