March 10, 2019
Disney’s release of Marvel Studios’s Captain Marvel gave the domestic box office a much needed jolt after the first two months of the year struggled to compete with 2018. The twenty-first entry into the Marvel Cinematic Universe delivered the franchise’s seventh largest opening weekend of all time while grossing more over its first three days than the combined totals of any previous three-day weekend so far this year.
With an estimated $153 million, Captain Marvel proved a massive success, bringing in the third highest March opening of all-time, and don’t be surprised to see actuals push the film’s total a bit higher come Monday afternoon. Historically, the performance ranks among openings that include The Dark Knight ($158.4m opening), The Hunger Games: Catching Fire ($158m opening), Rogue One ($155m opening) and The Hunger Games ($152.5m opening), the four of which representing a total domestic gross ranging from $408-530+ million.
On average, the 20 previous releases in the MCU delivered a 2.76x multiplier, which would suggest Captain Marvel‘s run would finish around $422 million based on the film’s domestic opening weekend. That said, should it manage to top Iron Man 3‘s $409 million domestic run it would rank as the fifth largest film in the MCU and, in terms of genre competition, it has a few weeks all to itself before WB’s Shazam! opens on April 5.
It is interesting to note exits, which show the film playing to an opening weekend crowd that was 55% male and 45% female, which, along with Black Panther and Ant-Man and the Wasp, is the smallest gender divide among films in the MCU, but nowhere near the 52% female crowd Wonder Woman played to back in June 2017. Additionally, 64% of the film’s opening weekend crowd was aged 25 or older, which ranks as one of the older audiences for an MCU film, while it earned an “A” CinemaScore.
Internationally, Captain Marvel delivered an estimated $302 million, making it the fifth highest international opening weekend of all-time and the sixth largest worldwide debut ever. Leading the way was the film’s opening in China, which is estimated at $89.3 million, which ranks as the third largest MCU opening weekend ever in the market behind Avengers: Infinity War and Captain America: Civil War. Behind China is South Korea with a $24.1 million debut followed by the UK ($16.8m), Brazil ($13.4m), Mexico ($12.8m), Australia ($10.7m), Indonesia ($10.1m), Russia ($9.8m), France ($9.2m), Germany ($7.8m), India ($6.9m), Thailand ($6.6m), Taiwan ($6.4m), Philippines ($6.3m), Malaysia ($5.6m), Italy ($5.5m) and Hong Kong ($5.2m). Next weekend the film will open in Japan serving as the only market where the film has yet to be released.
Universal’s How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World finished in the runner-up position with an estimated $14.7 million for a domestic cume just shy of $120 million as it enters its third week in release. The film also added another $21.7 million internationally this weekend, for an overseas cume that now totals $315.5 million for a global tally topping $435 million.
Tyler Perry‘s A Madea Family Funeral dipped -55% in its second weekend, delivering an estimated $12.05 million, pushing the film’s domestic cume just shy of $46 million.
WB’s The LEGO Movie 2 entered its fifth week in release with an estimated $3.8 million as it continues to inch toward $100 million domestically. The film also added another $3.9 million internationally this weekend for an international cume that is now $67.3 million, and a worldwide gross totaling $164.4 million.
Rounding out the top five is Fox’s Alita: Battle Angel, which dipped -56% for an estimated $3.2 million three-day and a domestic cume that now totals just over $78 million. The film also added $11.6 million from 74 overseas markets, lifting the international cume over $300 million for a worldwide tally that now stands at $382.6 million.
Elsewhere, Neon’s Apollo 11, which expanded into 405 theaters after playing in 120 IMAX exclusive locations last weekend, rounded out the top ten with an estimated $1.3 million for a $3,212 per theater average.
In limited release, Reliance’s Badla brought in an estimated $614,328 from 94 locations ($6,535 PTA); Lionsgate’s The Kid delivered an estimated $513,000 from 268 locations ($1,912 PTA); A24’s Gloria Bell debuted with an estimated $154,775 on 5 screens in NY and LA, for a per screen average of $30,955; Kino Lorber’s re-release of Babylon brought in an estimated $20,096 from one theater; and Greenwich’s Ferrante Fever opened with an estimated $4,000 from one location.
Overall, this is the first weekend in 2019 that saw the overall weekend gross manage to outperform the same weekend in 2018, doing so by a strong +48% based on estimates. The year, however, is still pacing -27% behind 2018’s record pace, but with so many major releases still in the pipeline 2019 should start closing that gap sooner than later.
Next weekend Paramount’s animated feature Wonder Park will open in ~3,500 locations; Lionsgate’s Five Feet Apart will debut in 2,600 theaters; and Focus will go nationwide with Captive State in ~2,200 theaters.
You can check out all of this weekend’s estimated results right here and we’ll be updating our charts with weekend actuals on Monday afternoon.